Crypto Currency

How Deep Are Bitcoin Traders Hedging After Recent Price Dip Below $100K?

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email How Deep Are Bitcoin Traders Hedging After Recent Price Dip Below $100K? BTC recently fell below $100,000 as macro uncertainties weighed over spot ETF inflows. By Omkar Godbole, AI Boost Nov 6, 2025, 2:20 a.m. How deep are traders hedging? What to

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How Deep Are Bitcoin Traders Hedging After Recent Price Dip Below $100K?

BTC recently fell below $100,000 as macro uncertainties weighed over spot ETF inflows.

By Omkar Godbole, AI Boost
Nov 6, 2025, 2:20 a.m.
stairs

How deep are traders hedging?

What to know:

  • Traders are increasingly cautious in the bitcoin options market, with a notable rise in demand for lower strike put options on Deribit.
  • Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 18% from its peak, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and reduced demand for spot ETFs.
  • Open interest in $80,000 and $90,000 put options is high, indicating hedging against further price declines.

The Deribit-listed bitcoin options market is revealing growing caution among traders, with some prepping for a slide to $80,000, as spot prices show signs of weakness.

Notional open interest in BTC options, or the dollar value of the active contracts, remains elevated above $40 billion on Deribit, with activity concentrated in November and December strikes close to $110,000. However, at the same time, demand for the $80,000 strike has increased, a sign that traders are anticipating a continued sell-off in BTC.

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“A notable surge in put options positioned near the $80,000 mark signals traders are increasingly hedging against a deeper slide,” Deribit said. Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, accounts for over 80% of the global options activity.

Options are widely used to hedge spot/futures market exposure and speculate on price direction, volatility and time. A put option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified future date. A put represents an insurance against price drops, while a call represents a bullish bet.

The $80,000 put is a bet that the spot price will decline below that level by the option’s expiration date.

OI distribution in BTC options on Deribit.

OI distribution in BTC options on Deribit.

As of writing, the $80,000 put option on Deribit has open interest (OI) exceeding $1 billion, while the $90,000 put stands near $1.9 billion, nearly matching the combined open interest of the popular $120,000 and $140,000 call options.

Note that at least part of the OI in these higher strike calls stems from overwriting, or shorting against long spot bets, rather than outright bullish bets. BTC holders short higher strike calls to generate additional yield on top of their coin stash.

Down 18%

Bitcoin’s price has dropped by over 18% since reaching a record high of more than $126,000, roughly four weeks ago. At one point this week, prices briefly fell below $100,000.

The sell-off comes as macro pressures, particularly the recent hawkish commentary by Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell, have weakened demand for spot ETFs.

“Macro pressure filtered directly into crypto via four consecutive sessions of roughly $1.3 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a reversal that turned one of 2025’s strongest tailwinds into a near-term headwind,” Singapore-based QCP Capital, said in a market update Wednesday.

“The softer spot demand collided with forced deleveraging, with more than $1 billion in long liquidations at the lows,” the firm added.

Ecoinometrics warned in a recent report that the closer bitcoin’s price stays to the $100,000 level, the greater the risk of a feedback loop emerging, where price weakness triggers outflows from bitcoin ETFs, which in turn puts additional downward pressure on the spot price.

As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at $103,200, representing a 1.9% gain over the past 24 hours.

BitcoinBitcoin OptionsMarketsOptions insights
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Michael Saylor’s company’s balance sheet isn’t at imminent risk of collapse, but further capital-raising efforts could surely be hindered unless conditions improve.

알아야 할 것:

  • Despite volatility, Strategy’s balance sheet faces no immediate stress, and the main pressure point sits about 18 months away when the first put option on the company’s convertible notes becomes exercisable.
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Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Bitcoin Backwardation Returns, a Pattern That Often Marks Market Bottoms Futures prices for BTC are trading below spot prices, signaling “extreme fear,” which can sometimes be read as a contrarian buy signal. By James Van Straten| Edited by Stephen Alpher Updated

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Bitcoin Backwardation Returns, a Pattern That Often Marks Market Bottoms

Futures prices for BTC are trading below spot prices, signaling “extreme fear,” which can sometimes be read as a contrarian buy signal.

By James Van Straten|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Updated Nov 19, 2025, 1:26 p.m. Published Nov 18, 2025, 6:15 p.m.
Futures Annualized Rolling Basis (3M) (Glassnode)

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What to know:

  • Bitcoin’s move into backwardation alongside a drop in the three month annualized basis to about 4% shows clear derivatives market stress.
  • Previous backwardation episodes in November 2022, March 2023 and August 2023 aligned closely with major or local market bottoms, reinforcing the pattern that these structures often appear at points of capitulation.

Bitcoin has slipped into backwardation, a structure that occurs when futures trade below the spot price and is typically associated with stress, “extreme fear” or heavy hedging activity. The shift comes as bitcoin has fallen as much as 30% from its all time high.

According to an X post from Thomas Young, Managing Partner at RUMJog Enterprises, says this setup is rare in bitcoin and often signals a moment when it is time to take the other side of the trade.

As Young notes, “backwardation doesn’t happen often, and when it does, it usually marks stress, forced de-risking, or a short-term capitulation point.”
Young adds that markets typically follow one of two paths from this point: “Reversal, as the panic clears,” or “continuation into a final flush, which also tends to mark the bottom of the move.”

Backwardation has a history of aligning with local or major market bottoms. It marked the exact cycle low in November 2022 around $15,000 during the FTX collapse. Backwardation reappeared in March 2023 when bitcoin briefly slipped below $20,000 during the SVB and USDC depeg before rebounding strongly.
Another example occurred in August 2023 when the Grayscale ETF news sold off which drove prices toward $25,000 which marked a short term bottom and a fast reversal.

The three month futures annualized rolling basis, which has now fallen to about 4%, its lowest level since November 2022. The basis measures the annualized return available from a basis trade where traders buy spot bitcoin and sell a futures contract simultaneously that matures in three months. Futures usually trade at a premium, while the spread offers a relatively low risk yield.

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The sharp compression of that premium shows that demand for leveraged long exposure has massively dropped. In bullish phases traders are willing to pay for forward exposure which drives the basis higher, it was as high as 27% back in March 2024 during bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,000.

The current decline points to a more cautious environment, softer risk appetite and a market still digesting the recent drawdown. During moments of extreme enthusiasm the curve can swing into steep contango but under normal conditions bitcoin trades in a relatively mild contango structure.

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