Should you buy or sell Bitcoin ahead of the July NFP report?

• The July NFP report is due today, and the US dollar’s volatility is set to increase
• Bitcoin holds close to its yearly highs
• The bias for Bitcoin remains bullish while the market holds above the rising trendline 

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is released on the first Friday of each month. It shows the change in the number of workers in the US economy – the largest economy in the world. 

Because of that, the economic report directly impacts financial markets. The dollar fluctuates widely on the NFP report’s release, and even the cryptocurrency market participants are interested in trading the report. 

Bitcoin’s correlation with the dollar’s strength or weakness increased since more institutional investors included Bitcoin in their portfolios. This year, the dollar declined, as reflected by the EUR/USD exchange rate that reached a new high for the year less than two weeks ago. 

Therefore, it is unsurprising that Bitcoin holds close to its yearly highs ahead of the July NFP report. Also, the bias remains bias as Bitcoin holds above the upward trendline that marks the 2023 bullish trend. 

Bitcoin chart by TradingView

The bias remains bullish while Bitcoin holds above the rising trendline

The technical picture favors more upside for Bitcoin for at least three reasons. 

First, since the 2022 lows, Bitcoin formed a series of higher highs and higher lows. Such formation is typical in bullish trends, and while in place, the bias remains bullish. 

Second, one can properly identify the bullish trend by connecting the lower highs. Bulls will keep buying the dips as long as the price action holds above it. 

Third, a possible bullish flag, marked in blue on the chart above, has a target of $35k for Bitcoin, as indicated by its measured move. 

Therefore, today’s NFP report can be the one to make or break the trend. On a better-than-expected report, Bitcoin might test the trendline as the dollar should strengthen. On the other hand, if the US economy added fewer jobs in July than the market expects, Bitcoin might go for the bullish flag’s measured move in the days to come.