Crypto Currency

Bitcoin potential upside muted by hedge funds shorting futures, Glassnode reports

Share this article URL Copied Image: Glassnode Coinbase, through its exchange and custody services, holds a significant portion of the aggregate exchange and US Spot ETF balances, with 270,000 BTC and 569,000 BTC respectively. The exchange’s role in market pricing has grown, especially with an increase in whale deposits to Coinbase wallets post-ETF launch. However

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Despite the impressive flows registered by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have seen impressive inflows, the expected positive impact on the market prices is being hindered by a strategy called “cash-and-carry.” According to on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, investors are longing Bitcoin through US Spot ETFs and shorting the asset via futures traded in the CME.

The CME Group futures market’s open interest has stabilized above $8 billion, indicating that traditional market traders are increasingly adopting the cash-and-carry strategy. This involves buying a long spot position and simultaneously shorting a futures contract.

Hedge funds, in particular, are amassing large net short positions in Bitcoin, totaling over $6.3 billion in CME Bitcoin and $97 million in Micro CME Bitcoin markets. This supports the notion that ETFs are being used primarily for longing spot exposure in these arbitrage trades.

Image: Glassnode

The cash-and-carry trade between long US Spot ETF products and shorting futures has effectively neutralized the buy-side inflows into ETFs, leading to a neutral impact on market prices and indicating a need for organic buy-side demand to stimulate positive price movement.

Notably, the amount of BTC funneled into large institutions grows daily with the ETF trading. Mt. Gox Trustee holds 141,00 BTC, the US Government 207,000 BTC, all exchanges combined have 2.3 million BTC, and miners, excluding Patoshi, possess 706,000 BTC. The total balance of these entities is approximately 4.23M BTC, representing 27% of the adjusted circulating supply.

Image: Glassnode

Coinbase, through its exchange and custody services, holds a significant portion of the aggregate exchange and US Spot ETF balances, with 270,000 BTC and 569,000 BTC respectively. The exchange’s role in market pricing has grown, especially with an increase in whale deposits to Coinbase wallets post-ETF launch.

However, a notable part of these deposits correlates with outflows from the GBTC address cluster, which has been exerting selling pressure.

Share this article

Share this article

Despite the impressive flows registered by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have seen impressive inflows, the expected positive impact on the market prices is being hindered by a strategy called “cash-and-carry.” According to on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, investors are longing Bitcoin through US Spot ETFs and shorting the asset via futures traded in the CME.

The CME Group futures market’s open interest has stabilized above $8 billion, indicating that traditional market traders are increasingly adopting the cash-and-carry strategy. This involves buying a long spot position and simultaneously shorting a futures contract.

Hedge funds, in particular, are amassing large net short positions in Bitcoin, totaling over $6.3 billion in CME Bitcoin and $97 million in Micro CME Bitcoin markets. This supports the notion that ETFs are being used primarily for longing spot exposure in these arbitrage trades.

Image: Glassnode

The cash-and-carry trade between long US Spot ETF products and shorting futures has effectively neutralized the buy-side inflows into ETFs, leading to a neutral impact on market prices and indicating a need for organic buy-side demand to stimulate positive price movement.

Notably, the amount of BTC funneled into large institutions grows daily with the ETF trading. Mt. Gox Trustee holds 141,00 BTC, the US Government 207,000 BTC, all exchanges combined have 2.3 million BTC, and miners, excluding Patoshi, possess 706,000 BTC. The total balance of these entities is approximately 4.23M BTC, representing 27% of the adjusted circulating supply.

Image: Glassnode

Coinbase, through its exchange and custody services, holds a significant portion of the aggregate exchange and US Spot ETF balances, with 270,000 BTC and 569,000 BTC respectively. The exchange’s role in market pricing has grown, especially with an increase in whale deposits to Coinbase wallets post-ETF launch.

However, a notable part of these deposits correlates with outflows from the GBTC address cluster, which has been exerting selling pressure.

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Bitcoin, crypto prices tick up as US-Iran peace deal odds climb

Markets Bitcoin, crypto prices tick up as US-Iran peace deal odds climb Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium, as Pakistan and Qatar are mediating. By Francisco Rodrigues| Edited by Aoyon Ashraf May 25, 2026, 4:46 p.m. 2 min read Make preferred on Share Share

Markets

Bitcoin, crypto prices tick up as US-Iran peace deal odds climb

Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium, as Pakistan and Qatar are mediating.

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaking at Mar-a-Lago. (CoinDesk)
Summary

  • Crypto prices rose as Polymarket odds for a U.S.-Iran peace deal increased to 37% this month.
  • Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating.
  • President Trump stated the agreement is “subject to finalization,” emphasizing a conditional tone: “a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all.”

Crypto prices were slightly higher on Monday amid rising odds in prediction markets for a near-term U.S.-Iran peace deal, as Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks.

Bitcoin gained 1.6% in 24 hours to $77,500, ether rose 1.4%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) added 1.56%.

Traders on Polymarket pushed the probability of a permanent deal this month to 37%, up from roughly 14% on Friday. The odds for a deal are at 46% by early June and 72% by the end of July. The market has drawn roughly $178 million in volume.

The move follows a Truth Social post from President Trump on Saturday saying the framework agreement was “subject to finalization.” Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati arrived in Doha earlier today for talks, per CNN.

A diplomat briefed on the visit told CNN that the agenda is focused on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry has described the deal as a memorandum of understanding in a first phase, with broader talks over 30 to 60 days, CNBC reported. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating.

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blockaded since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, though traffic has partially resumed in recent days.

Crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel. Gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce. The dollar weakened, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.3%.

Trump’s tone remains conditional. “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before,” he wrote Monday.

Read more: Bitcoin trades above $77,000 as oil’s 5% slide pushes Asian equities higher

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